Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 769 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 769 ORD 05:16 → PHX 07:06 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 332 ORD 20:54 → PHX 22:36 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 769 American Flight history →	ORD 05:16	PHX 07:06	9%	3%	0.4%	86%
AA 2434 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	PHX 06:32	11%	3%	0.4%	87%
UA 2795 United	ORD 06:55	PHX 08:34	13%	2%	0.3%	no record
AA 1242 American	ORD 06:03	PHX 07:45	15%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 2192 American	ORD 06:50	PHX 08:33	16%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 2164 United Flight history →	ORD 11:14	PHX 13:09	17%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 2225 United Flight history →	ORD 10:22	PHX 12:16	18%	3%	0.6%	95%worse than usual
AA 1640 American Flight history →	ORD 13:34	PHX 15:36	22%	6%	0.7%	81%
UA 602 United Flight history →	ORD 20:30	PHX 22:27	22%	6%	0.6%	70%
UA 455 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	PHX 15:19	23%	5%	0.6%	86%
AA 866 American Flight history →	ORD 10:18	PHX 12:10	23%	5%	0.7%	64%
UA 1706 United	ORD 13:48	PHX 15:25	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 3079 American Flight history →	ORD 10:16	PHX 11:58	24%	5%	0.7%	68%
AA 2786 American Flight history →	ORD 22:35	PHX 00:14	25%	7%	0.7%	55%
UA 2015 United	ORD 16:01	PHX 17:47	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2053 United Flight history →	ORD 17:18	PHX 19:04	26%	6%	0.6%	79%
AA 3137 American Flight history →	ORD 17:16	PHX 19:24	26%	8%	0.7%	63%
AA 3277 American	ORD 20:48	PHX 22:51	27%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 1384 American Flight history →	ORD 14:25	PHX 16:09	27%	6%	0.7%	34%
AA 2624 American Flight history →	ORD 15:22	PHX 17:05	27%	6%	0.7%	70%
AA 2965 American	ORD 18:23	PHX 20:32	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2554 American Flight history →	ORD 19:08	PHX 21:12	28%	6%	0.7%	79%
AA 3261 American Flight history →	ORD 17:19	PHX 19:04	30%	7%	0.7%	56%
AA 332 American Flight history →	ORD 20:54	PHX 22:36	32%	8%	0.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON