Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 3656 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–28%.

Safest bet that day YX 3656 ORD 05:59 → PIT 08:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1173 ORD 18:48 → PIT 21:30 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3656 Republic	ORD 05:59	PIT 08:39	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
AA 4484 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:45	PIT 12:31	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
YX 4748 Republic	ORD 09:45	PIT 12:25	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3432 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:40	PIT 15:23	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 1285 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	PIT 09:58	5%	2%	0.4%	88%
AA 4527 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:57	PIT 23:37	8%	2%	0.6%	73%
AA 4539 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:08	PIT 23:52	8%	2%	0.6%	79%
UA 3464 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:20	PIT 23:59	8%	2%	0.6%	80%
AA 4569 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:45	PIT 21:30	9%	3%	0.6%	71%
UA 2771 United Flight history →	ORD 10:30	PIT 13:14	11%	5%	0.6%	76%
UA 2752 United	ORD 10:46	PIT 13:22	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1349 United Flight history →	ORD 14:25	PIT 17:10	15%	5%	0.6%	72%
AA 555 American Flight history →	ORD 12:30	PIT 15:09	17%	8%	0.9%	61%
AA 982 American	ORD 12:29	PIT 15:02	18%	6%	1.3%	no record
UA 5584 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:46	PIT 18:35	19%	9%	0.6%	62%
UA 1946 United Flight history →	ORD 18:05	PIT 20:51	22%	6%	0.6%	64%
AA 1819 American	ORD 17:08	PIT 19:56	22%	9%	1.3%	no record
OO 5657 SkyWest	ORD 16:12	PIT 18:45	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 2296 American Flight history →	ORD 17:30	PIT 20:09	25%	9%	1.0%	49%
AA 1173 American Flight history →	ORD 18:48	PIT 21:30	28%	9%	1.2%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON