tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:51 pm at Chicago); 3 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:22, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Pensacola on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 15:22 → ATL 18:36DL 1477 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 21:34 → PNS 21:47DL 3086 6h 25m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → ORD 17:27 → MIA 21:36AA 2323 1h 32m Miami MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59AA 4109 · flown by Envoy 6h 32m 83% 70%
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 1h 10m Houston IAH 20:20 → PNS 22:01UA 497 5h 56m 88% 61%
AmericanDetails → ORD 14:59 → DFW 17:35AA 2257 2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:22 → PNS 22:22AA 5510 · flown by PSA 7h 23m 92% 50%
AmericanDetails → ORD 17:45 → CLT 20:59AA 2917 2h 02m Charlotte CLT 23:01 → PNS 23:46AA 1007 6h 01m 95% 47%
AmericanDetails → ORD 16:45 → CLT 19:59AA 1683 3h 05m Charlotte CLT 23:04 → PNS 23:51AA 3038 7h 06m 95% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 17:59 → MIA 22:20AA 2690 48m Miami MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59AA 4109 · flown by Envoy 6h 00m 72% 61%
AmericanDetails → ORD 16:51 → DFW 19:28AA 2988 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:22 → PNS 22:22AA 5510 · flown by PSA 5h 31m 70% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON