Today: YX 3662 at 15:27 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet today YX 3662 ORD 15:27 → PWM 19:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1401 ORD 18:08 → PWM 21:41 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3662 Republic	ORD 15:27	PWM 19:09	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4774 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 15:28	PWM 19:02	11%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 4741 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:40	PWM 12:09	12%	2%	0.1%	92%
AA 4504 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:57	PWM 23:25	13%	3%	0.6%	69%
AA 4403 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:09	PWM 00:43	13%	3%	0.7%	65%
YX 4478 Republic	ORD 13:40	PWM 17:09	14%	3%	0.2%	no record
OO 5232 SkyWest	ORD 07:01	PWM 10:23	15%	7%	0.3%	no record
UA 2804 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	PWM 14:31	19%	5%	0.2%	86%
UA 1401 United Flight history →	ORD 18:08	PWM 21:41	22%	7%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON