Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4500 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4500 ORD 08:10 → RIC 11:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 6285 ORD 16:15 → RIC 19:31 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4500 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:10	RIC 11:30	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 3704 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:35	RIC 13:57	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
YX 3532 Republic	ORD 10:55	RIC 14:17	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 3523 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 14:30	RIC 17:49	7%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 4698 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:22	RIC 00:39	8%	3%	0.7%	50%
MQ 3442 Envoy	ORD 14:02	RIC 17:11	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1570 American	ORD 08:06	RIC 11:18	13%	4%	2.2%	no record
UA 1583 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	RIC 21:27	18%	9%	0.6%	66%
AA 6285 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:15	RIC 19:31	19%	8%	0.7%	65%
UA 4427 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 07:43	RIC 11:02	16%	8%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON