Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:22 pm at Chicago); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:40, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Reno on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 35% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORD 19:40 → SLC 22:11DL 2376	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607	6h 07m	72%	60%
Delta Details →	ORD 18:35 → LAX 21:12DL 2298	47m Los Angeles	LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28DL 3929 · flown by SkyWest	6h 53m	35%	27%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON