Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2618 ORD 16:26 → RSW 20:34 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 1774 ORD 18:48 → RSW 22:43 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2618 United Flight history →	ORD 16:26	RSW 20:34	20%	4%	0.4%	71%
AA 3238 American Flight history →	ORD 19:29	RSW 23:29	23%	7%	0.6%	67%
AA 1774 American	ORD 18:48	RSW 22:43	28%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON