Today: UA 490 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet today UA 490 ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 431 ORD 21:19 → SAT 00:10 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 490 United Flight history →	ORD 09:25	SAT 12:29	12%	3%	0.2%	86%
YX 4488 Republic	ORD 14:50	SAT 18:01	14%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 2844 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	SAT 16:29	15%	6%	0.2%	75%
UA 1252 United	ORD 13:44	SAT 16:46	15%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 4176 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:59	SAT 17:59	16%	4%	0.3%	80%
AA 1916 American	ORD 10:37	SAT 13:40	17%	7%	0.2%	no record
AA 2486 American Flight history →	ORD 10:00	SAT 12:50	18%	8%	0.2%	72%
UA 1394 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	SAT 22:57	24%	8%	0.6%	57%
AA 431 American Flight history →	ORD 21:19	SAT 00:10	25%	8%	0.8%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON