Today: YX 3672 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10%.

Safest bet today YX 3672 ORD 06:53 → SDF 09:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5692 ORD 10:41 → SDF 13:03 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3672 Republic	ORD 06:53	SDF 09:21	3%	1%	0.1%	no record
YX 4492 Republic	ORD 06:59	SDF 09:27	4%	1%	0.1%	no record
AA 4704 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 07:29	SDF 10:05	4%	1%	0.1%	93%
AA 4668 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:30	SDF 15:59	6%	2%	0.3%	86%
UA 3659 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:25	SDF 23:59	10%	4%	0.6%	73%
YX 3605 Republic	ORD 16:39	SDF 19:08	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3580 Envoy	ORD 09:34	SDF 11:54	10%	2%	0.3%	no record
UA 3598 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:50	SDF 20:23	10%	3%	0.6%	77%
AA 4603 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:29	SDF 22:04	10%	4%	0.6%	75%
UA 5703 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:59	SDF 09:26	12%	4%	0.3%	71%
UA 5467 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:00	SDF 13:35	18%	7%	0.2%	80%
OO 5692 SkyWest	ORD 10:41	SDF 13:03	22%	8%	0.2%	no record
UA 4519 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:25	SDF 18:56	34%	11%	5.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON