Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2099 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2099 ORD 08:45 → SEA 11:38 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AS 583 ORD 09:02 → SEA 11:23 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2099 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	SEA 11:38	13%	5%	0.6%	83%
UA 341 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	SEA 09:40	16%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 2820 United Flight history →	ORD 20:05	SEA 22:56	16%	6%	0.6%	59%
DL 2041 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:55	SEA 09:27	16%	3%	0.7%	74%
UA 1801 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SEA 19:06	16%	6%	0.6%	73%
DL 1564 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:00	SEA 15:44	17%	5%	0.6%	65%
UA 1660 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	SEA 16:09	17%	6%	0.6%	87%
DL 637 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:55	SEA 20:34	18%	5%	0.6%	60%
AS 715 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 06:00	SEA 08:38	18%	2%	0.7%	81%
AS 329 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 20:20	SEA 23:04	18%	6%	0.6%	67%
AS 587 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 05:56	SEA 08:20	19%	3%	0.7%	64%
AA 1459 American Flight history →	ORD 22:27	SEA 00:59	19%	5%	1.0%	48%
AA 2523 American Flight history →	ORD 06:40	SEA 09:27	20%	4%	0.9%	84%
AA 1476 American	ORD 11:41	SEA 14:23	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 579 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 13:01	SEA 15:42	22%	5%	0.6%	86%
AA 2672 American	ORD 13:02	SEA 15:49	22%	8%	0.8%	no record
AS 407 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 15:43	SEA 18:22	23%	5%	0.6%	68%
AA 3105 American Flight history →	ORD 17:47	SEA 20:37	23%	7%	0.9%	44%
AA 3234 American Flight history →	ORD 06:46	SEA 09:19	23%	4%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
AS 337 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 17:42	SEA 20:21	24%	6%	0.7%	49%
AA 2520 American Flight history →	ORD 10:30	SEA 13:19	24%	6%	0.8%	71%
AA 2524 American Flight history →	ORD 11:40	SEA 14:27	24%	6%	0.8%	61%
AS 583 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 09:02	SEA 11:23	33%	4%	0.8%	41%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	6h 29m	93%	82%
Alaska Details →	ORD 07:20 → PDX 09:45AS 413	50m Portland	PDX 10:35 → SEA 11:43AS 3431 · flown by SkyWest	6h 23m	81%	60%
United Details →	ORD 08:40 → DEN 10:31UA 526	47m Denver	DEN 11:18 → SEA 13:02UA 2058	6h 22m	78%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON