Today: UA 246 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet today UA 246 ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 649 ORD 18:20 → SFO 20:46 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 246 United Flight history →	ORD 06:10	SFO 08:47	6%	2%	0.3%	93%
UA 1116 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	SFO 10:19	11%	3%	0.3%	87%
AA 2543 American Flight history →	ORD 06:29	SFO 09:05	12%	4%	0.2%	84%
AA 2885 American	ORD 06:43	SFO 09:15	14%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 2106 United Flight history →	ORD 21:35	SFO 00:32	15%	6%	0.7%	78%
AA 1586 American Flight history →	ORD 08:43	SFO 11:25	15%	4%	0.3%	58%
UA 1334 United Flight history →	ORD 15:26	SFO 18:18	17%	6%	0.6%	66%
AA 1948 American	ORD 10:38	SFO 13:38	17%	7%	0.3%	no record
UA 342 United	ORD 08:55	SFO 11:35	17%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 2550 American Flight history →	ORD 11:05	SFO 13:46	17%	7%	0.3%	41%
UA 2610 United Flight history →	ORD 08:50	SFO 11:38	17%	5%	0.4%	54%
UA 2251 United Flight history →	ORD 15:57	SFO 18:49	18%	6%	0.6%	69%
UA 543 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	SFO 13:14	18%	7%	0.3%	63%
UA 1577 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	SFO 17:19	19%	7%	0.6%	74%
AA 3115 American Flight history →	ORD 08:19	SFO 10:50	20%	5%	0.2%	93%worse than usual
UA 1097 United Flight history →	ORD 12:35	SFO 15:00	20%	6%	0.7%	79%
UA 2437 United	ORD 16:00	SFO 18:24	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2253 American	ORD 13:34	SFO 16:32	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 3141 American Flight history →	ORD 17:16	SFO 20:21	22%	9%	0.9%	57%
AA 3054 American Flight history →	ORD 21:17	SFO 23:59	24%	9%	1.2%	32%
AA 2158 American	ORD 21:31	SFO 00:02	24%	9%	1.3%	no record
UA 1495 United Flight history →	ORD 20:04	SFO 22:57	24%	8%	0.7%	45%
UA 2179 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	SFO 21:18	25%	7%	0.7%	48%
AA 1253 American Flight history →	ORD 15:18	SFO 17:58	25%	8%	0.8%	70%
AA 1620 American Flight history →	ORD 17:59	SFO 20:46	25%	9%	1.2%	34%
AA 1954 American	ORD 19:03	SFO 22:06	28%	10%	1.2%	no record
UA 649 United	ORD 18:20	SFO 20:46	30%	6%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	59m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391	6h 18m	94%	78%
United Details →	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	48m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 20m	87%	71%
United Details →	ORD 12:56 → DEN 14:46UA 1150	1h 01m Denver	DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633	6h 34m	88%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON