tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 307 United ORD 09:36 SJC 12:14 9% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 481 United Flight history → ORD 19:58 SJC 22:43 17% 6% 0.6% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 7h 31m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556 2h 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 8h 43m 100% 88%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 07:20 → PDX 09:45AS 413 2h 00m Portland PDX 11:45 → SJC 13:35AS 1632 8h 15m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 55m Denver DEN 11:37 → SJC 13:23UA 1256 9h 23m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 6h 50m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041 2h 18m Seattle SEA 11:45 → SJC 14:15DL 3789 · flown by SkyWest 9h 20m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 9h 32m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 00m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ORD 14:02 → SLC 16:37DL 2249 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest 6h 24m 71% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON