Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1996 at 08:49 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 1996 ORD 08:49 → SJU 14:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest F9 3346 ORD 00:44 → SJU 06:44 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1996 United Flight history →	ORD 08:49	SJU 14:44	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
UA 695 United Flight history →	ORD 14:38	SJU 20:34	15%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 1865 American	ORD 08:11	SJU 13:46	21%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3192 American Flight history →	ORD 17:50	SJU 23:48	22%	10%	1.0%	59%
F9 3346 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 00:44	SJU 06:44	31%	11%	1.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON