Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Today: DL 2231 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet today DL 2231 ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 2545 ORD 21:18 → SLC 23:43 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2231 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:45	SLC 10:15	10%	2%	0.2%	81%
UA 1972 United Flight history →	ORD 08:55	SLC 11:39	16%	3%	0.2%	84%
UA 1955 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	SLC 15:22	17%	4%	0.6%	77%
AA 1991 American	ORD 08:13	SLC 10:39	17%	5%	0.2%	no record
DL 1446 Delta	ORD 14:08	SLC 16:29	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2249 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:02	SLC 16:37	18%	3%	0.6%	68%
UA 1710 United Flight history →	ORD 20:10	SLC 22:48	19%	6%	0.6%	58%
AA 3258 American Flight history →	ORD 11:51	SLC 14:39	19%	5%	0.7%	70%
DL 2376 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:40	SLC 22:11	22%	5%	0.6%	48%
AA 2616 American Flight history →	ORD 10:05	SLC 12:35	22%	7%	0.2%	83%
DL 1448 Delta	ORD 19:44	SLC 22:03	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1873 American	ORD 14:04	SLC 16:29	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2780 American Flight history →	ORD 13:33	SLC 16:03	25%	6%	0.7%	72%
AA 2545 American Flight history →	ORD 21:18	SLC 23:43	27%	7%	0.7%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON