Today: UA 1304 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet today UA 1304 ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 519 ORD 17:05 → SNA 19:27 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1304 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	SNA 11:21	13%	3%	0.2%	79%
AA 2679 American Flight history →	ORD 08:14	SNA 10:33	14%	3%	0.3%	87%
AA 699 American	ORD 08:14	SNA 10:56	15%	3%	0.3%	no record
UA 308 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	SNA 22:19	20%	4%	0.6%	84%
AA 661 American	ORD 12:04	SNA 14:41	22%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 2640 American Flight history →	ORD 12:00	SNA 14:20	23%	4%	0.3%	73%
UA 1317 United Flight history →	ORD 16:18	SNA 18:54	24%	4%	0.2%	70%
AA 1179 American Flight history →	ORD 18:27	SNA 20:50	24%	5%	0.8%	74%
UA 1107 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SNA 18:52	25%	4%	0.2%	69%
AA 519 American Flight history →	ORD 17:05	SNA 19:27	28%	4%	0.4%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORD 08:27 → MSP 10:02DL 1554	58m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081	6h 27m	85%	71%
United Details →	ORD 13:30 → DEN 15:17UA 2802	52m Denver	DEN 16:09 → SNA 17:44UA 1497	6h 14m	86%	65%
American Details →	ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769	1h 06m Phoenix	PHX 10:15 → SNA 11:43AA 2655	6h 18m	86%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON