Today: AA 4044 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet today AA 4044 ORD 07:09 → SYR 10:12 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2755 ORD 19:48 → SYR 22:36 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 15% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4044 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:09	SYR 10:12	10%	2%	0.6%	93%
AA 3819 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:23	SYR 16:26	12%	3%	0.8%	84%
MQ 3531 Envoy	ORD 09:16	SYR 12:11	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3631 Envoy	ORD 15:22	SYR 18:23	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
OO 5937 SkyWest	ORD 07:37	SYR 10:28	17%	5%	0.4%	no record
UA 2343 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	SYR 16:48	18%	5%	0.7%	81%
UA 2481 United Flight history →	ORD 18:09	SYR 21:09	22%	7%	0.7%	68%
AA 6398 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:46	SYR 19:49	25%	12%	0.8%	49%
AA 2755 American Flight history →	ORD 19:48	SYR 22:36	30%	10%	0.7%	15%
UA 4541 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 07:43	SYR 10:48	14%	3%	0.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON