Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2326 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2326 ORD 07:31 → TPA 11:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1101 ORD 14:46 → TPA 18:32 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2326 United Flight history →	ORD 07:31	TPA 11:24	6%	3%	0.4%	91%
AA 2052 American	ORD 09:10	TPA 13:06	11%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 2920 American Flight history →	ORD 09:05	TPA 12:56	11%	4%	1.2%	79%
UA 1834 United Flight history →	ORD 11:19	TPA 15:12	13%	4%	0.9%	83%
UA 2244 United	ORD 13:13	TPA 17:01	19%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 1057 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	TPA 18:24	22%	8%	0.9%	76%
UA 1393 United Flight history →	ORD 16:40	TPA 20:25	24%	9%	1.0%	62%
AA 2768 American Flight history →	ORD 13:36	TPA 17:25	25%	9%	1.0%	66%
AA 353 American Flight history →	ORD 18:46	TPA 22:46	31%	11%	1.3%	63%
AA 1101 American Flight history →	ORD 14:46	TPA 18:32	31%	13%	1.2%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON