Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4135 ORD 09:40 → TUL 11:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 6028 ORD 12:51 → TUL 15:02 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4135 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:40	TUL 11:44	7%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 4281 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:05	TUL 00:06	8%	3%	0.7%	75%
YX 4729 Republic	ORD 15:07	TUL 17:12	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3827 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:00	TUL 19:06	9%	3%	0.7%	77%
UA 5795 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:45	TUL 11:03	10%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 6028 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:51	TUL 15:02	13%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 4482 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 15:35	TUL 17:42	21%	10%	3.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON