Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 21–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2537 ORD 11:51 → TUS 13:55 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 2661 ORD 20:59 → TUS 22:42 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2537 American Flight history →	ORD 11:51	TUS 13:55	21%	4%	0.2%	79%
AA 2867 American Flight history →	ORD 10:00	TUS 11:45	24%	4%	0.2%	86%
OO 5928 SkyWest	ORD 12:42	TUS 14:29	26%	6%	0.3%	no record
AA 2661 American Flight history →	ORD 20:59	TUS 22:42	28%	9%	0.8%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON