Today: UA 3572 at 21:25 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–44%.

Safest bet today UA 3572 ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest UA 2071 ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:35 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3572 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:25	TVC 23:54	22%	10%	0.7%	61%
AA 3910 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:40	TVC 00:01	23%	9%	0.7%	78%
MQ 4274 Envoy	ORD 21:06	TVC 23:15	25%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 5714 SkyWest	ORD 18:32	TVC 20:44	43%	25%	0.9%	no record
UA 2071 United Flight history →	ORD 21:25	TVC 23:35	44%	15%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON