Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2966 at 05:15, 11%.

Safest bet today DL 2966 ORF 05:15 → ATL 06:54 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 3071 ORF 12:10 → ATL 14:08 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2966 Delta Flight history →	ORF 05:15	ATL 06:54	11%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 1364 Delta Flight history →	ORF 06:20	ATL 08:10	15%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 1101 Delta Flight history →	ORF 16:55	ATL 18:46	16%	5%	0.9%	67%
DL 1338 Delta Flight history →	ORF 08:00	ATL 09:49	18%	4%	0.8%	90%
DL 2329 Delta Flight history →	ORF 18:17	ATL 20:22	21%	5%	0.9%	77%
DL 1346 Delta Flight history →	ORF 19:59	ATL 21:59	22%	6%	0.9%	75%
DL 1336 Delta Flight history →	ORF 10:16	ATL 12:05	25%	4%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
DL 2925 Delta Flight history →	ORF 13:52	ATL 15:45	36%	9%	0.9%	85%worse than usual
DL 2755 Delta Flight history →	ORF 12:33	ATL 14:18	42%	8%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
F9 3071 Frontier Flight history →	ORF 12:10	ATL 14:08	53%	15%	1.1%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON