Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 47%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1814 at 19:19, 37%.

Safest bet today B6 1814 ORF 19:19 → BOS 21:05 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest YX 5794 ORF 11:40 → BOS 13:28 · 53% chance 15+ min late

Weather 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1814 JetBlue Flight history →	ORF 19:19	BOS 21:05	37%	18%	0.8%	71%
DL 5809 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 11:55	BOS 13:48	51%	14%	1.3%	94%worse than usual
YX 5794 Republic	ORF 11:40	BOS 13:28	53%	15%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON