Today: WN 2427 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet today WN 2427 ORF 06:25 → BWI 07:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3303 ORF 14:11 → BWI 15:24 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2427 Southwest	ORF 06:25	BWI 07:36	8%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 3183 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 06:00	BWI 07:00	9%	3%	0.3%	91%
WN 3301 Southwest	ORF 09:55	BWI 11:06	11%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4904 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 09:55	BWI 10:55	14%	3%	0.2%	82%
WN 2848 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 16:30	BWI 17:35	15%	5%	0.7%	58%
WN 1715 Southwest	ORF 18:05	BWI 19:18	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1665 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 18:10	BWI 19:15	18%	5%	0.7%	83%
WN 3185 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 12:15	BWI 13:20	19%	4%	0.2%	85%
WN 3302 Southwest	ORF 12:11	BWI 13:23	20%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 3303 Southwest	ORF 14:11	BWI 15:24	24%	6%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON