Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 31–39% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5509 ORF 12:04 → DCA 13:32 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest AA 5338 ORF 17:42 → DCA 18:55 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 5509 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 12:04	DCA 13:32	31%	11%	0.6%	70%
AA 5336 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 11:07	DCA 12:19	35%	11%	0.6%	61%
AA 5601 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 17:46	DCA 18:54	38%	15%	0.8%	50%
AA 5338 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 17:42	DCA 18:55	39%	14%	0.9%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON