Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2262 at 15:17, 37%.

Safest bet today AA 2262 ORF 15:17 → DFW 17:41 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest AA 2265 ORF 18:56 → DFW 21:19 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Weather 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2262 American Flight history →	ORF 15:17	DFW 17:41	37%	11%	0.6%	68%
AA 2288 American Flight history →	ORF 19:12	DFW 21:50	39%	10%	0.6%	75%worse than usual
AA 2265 American Flight history →	ORF 18:56	DFW 21:19	45%	11%	0.6%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON