Today: UA 3491 at 20:15 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–39%.

Safest bet today UA 3491 ORF 20:15 → EWR 21:56 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest UA 4575 ORF 17:55 → EWR 19:49 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3491 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 20:15	EWR 21:56	17%	11%	1.1%	72%
UA 3654 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 17:44	EWR 19:42	21%	12%	1.0%	67%
UA 4575 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ORF 17:55	EWR 19:49	39%	19%	1.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON