Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1524 ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2066 ORF 10:45 → IAD 11:48 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1524 United Flight history →	ORF 06:05	IAD 07:07	10%	6%	0.8%	95%
UA 2066 United Flight history →	ORF 10:45	IAD 11:48	15%	5%	0.8%	92%
UA 4023 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 15:00	IAD 16:09	14%	8%	1.6%	86%
UA 4810 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 19:59	IAD 21:13	21%	10%	5.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON