Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 5856 ORF 18:40 → JFK 20:25 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest AA 4359 ORF 17:39 → JFK 19:14 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 5856 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 18:40	JFK 20:25	17%	9%	0.6%	68%
YX 4453 Republic	ORF 14:52	JFK 16:19	18%	7%	0.5%	no record
AA 4359 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORF 17:39	JFK 19:14	21%	9%	0.6%	78%
DL 5370 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 12:07	JFK 13:44	27%	8%	2.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON