Today: WN 2365 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet today WN 2365 ORF 07:45 → MDW 09:07 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1039 ORF 19:15 → MDW 20:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2365 Southwest	ORF 07:45	MDW 09:07	11%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 2834 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 07:05	MDW 08:10	11%	3%	0.3%	92%
WN 3187 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 15:30	MDW 16:35	19%	4%	0.6%	33%
WN 2771 Southwest	ORF 19:00	MDW 20:23	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1039 Southwest Flight history →	ORF 19:15	MDW 20:20	22%	4%	0.6%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON