tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:38 pm at Norfolk); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 18:46, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → ORF 18:46 → ORD 20:29AA 4164 · flown by Envoy 2h 07m Chicago ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic 6h 36m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → ORF 16:21 → DEN 18:20UA 1390 2h 34m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 8h 38m 98% 77%
SouthwestDetails → ORF 19:15 → MDW 20:20WN 1039 1h 30m Chicago MDW 21:50 → MSP 23:20WN 4085 5h 05m 93% 71%
DeltaDetails → ORF 14:16 → LGA 15:41DL 5329 · flown by Endeavor 2h 24m New York LGA 18:05 → MSP 20:43DL 2015 7h 27m 93% 71%
DeltaDetails → ORF 17:06 → DTW 18:59DL 1621 2h 03m Detroit DTW 21:02 → MSP 21:54DL 8815 5h 48m 93% 69%
SouthwestDetails → ORF 18:10 → BWI 19:15WN 1665 3h 20m Baltimore BWI 22:35 → MSP 00:22 +1WN 4479 7h 12m 93% 68%
SouthwestDetails → ORF 15:40 → DEN 17:35WN 1037 1h 30m Denver DEN 19:05 → MSP 22:10WN 2677 7h 30m 91% 66%
UnitedDetails → ORF 17:00 → ORD 18:41UA 5334 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Chicago ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131 7h 10m 95% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ORF 13:52 → ATL 15:45DL 2925 53m Atlanta ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654 5h 26m 67% 50%
AmericanDetails → ORF 13:27 → CLT 14:49AA 2254 51m Charlotte CLT 15:40 → MSP 17:32AA 2140 5h 05m 61% 41%
AmericanDetails → ORF 17:42 → DCA 18:55AA 5338 · flown by PSA 1h 11m Washington DCA 20:06 → MSP 21:54AA 5506 · flown by PSA 5h 12m 63% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON