Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: YX 4545 at 18:31, 19%.

Safest bet today YX 4545 ORF 18:31 → ORD 20:01 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5334 ORF 17:00 → ORD 18:41 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Weather 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4545 Republic	ORF 18:31	ORD 20:01	19%	11%	0.4%	no record
AA 4164 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORF 18:46	ORD 20:29	26%	11%	0.8%	72%
UA 1251 United	ORF 16:54	ORD 18:11	47%	18%	0.4%	no record
UA 5334 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORF 17:00	ORD 18:41	50%	35%	0.7%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON