tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching San Francisco Bay Area on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 36% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2855 United Flight history → MCO 08:09 SFO 10:53 8% 3% 0.7% 93%
UA 2017 United Flight history → MCO 10:00 SFO 12:44 11% 6% 0.7% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco Bay Area on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:45 → LAS 08:25WN 2365 1h 30m Las Vegas LAS 09:55 → SJC 11:30WN 439 7h 45m 100% 93%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 06:20 → DEN 08:10WN 2628 1h 20m Denver DEN 09:30 → SJC 11:00WN 2384 7h 40m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest 8h 36m 97% 90%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 07:10 → SAN 09:10WN 2695 1h 35m San Diego SAN 10:45 → OAK 12:25WN 5087 8h 15m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 20m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCO 08:55 → IAD 11:14UA 276 3h 37m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 11h 43m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:45 → LAX 11:49DL 504 2h 43m Los Angeles LAX 14:32 → SJC 15:46DL 3822 · flown by SkyWest 9h 01m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 16:45 → SLC 19:25DL 2036 3h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest 10h 05m 93% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MCO 17:20 → LAS 19:15WN 2648 50m Las Vegas LAS 20:05 → SFO 21:35WN 4397 7h 15m 45% 30%
AmericanDetails → MCO 17:48 → DFW 19:47AA 1288 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:44 → SFO 22:28AA 2228 7h 40m 46% 28%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 14:57 → JFK 17:44B6 1084 46m New York JFK 18:30 → SFO 22:10B6 615 10h 13m 36% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON