Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2436 at 07:00, 7%.

Safest bet that day DL 2436 MCO 07:00 → BOS 10:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2052 MCO 18:12 → BOS 21:24 · 68% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Weather 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2436 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	BOS 10:10	7%	2%	0.9%	94%
B6 1452 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:15	BOS 09:17	13%	4%	1.3%	85%
F9 1978 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:45	BOS 10:47	18%	8%	1.3%	93%worse than usual
B6 852 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 07:04	BOS 09:59	19%	6%	1.2%	61%
B6 552 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:45	BOS 12:48	20%	7%	1.2%	90%worse than usual
DL 1580 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:16	BOS 14:22	22%	6%	0.8%	82%
B6 252 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:34	BOS 15:42	37%	17%	1.2%	61%
AA 2735 American Flight history →	MCO 13:06	BOS 16:07	41%	14%	1.3%	74%worse than usual
B6 52 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:35	BOS 16:43	44%	22%	1.2%	72%worse than usual
DL 888 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:59	BOS 23:20	49%	19%	1.3%	58%
B6 1152 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 15:49	BOS 19:00	58%	26%	1.2%	59%worse than usual
B6 2052 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:12	BOS 21:24	68%	41%	1.6%	55%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON