Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 37 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 7 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–62%.

Safest bet that day WN 7 MCO 06:15 → DAL 07:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1481 MCO 18:35 → DFW 20:33 · 62% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 7 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:15	DAL 07:50	7%	1%	0.5%	93%
WN 2703 Southwest	MCO 06:37	DAL 08:24	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 2677 American Flight history →	MCO 05:30	DFW 07:26	8%	3%	0.8%	93%
WN 2707 Southwest	MCO 07:32	DAL 09:20	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 738 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:50	DAL 09:25	9%	1%	0.5%	80%
AA 2975 American Flight history →	MCO 06:31	DFW 08:27	12%	4%	0.7%	87%
AA 599 American Flight history →	MCO 07:30	DFW 09:29	14%	4%	0.7%	89%
F9 4017 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:40	DFW 07:33	15%	6%	1.3%	83%
WN 167 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:25	DAL 11:00	15%	2%	0.5%	73%
AA 2961 American Flight history →	MCO 07:54	DFW 09:49	16%	5%	0.7%	93%
AA 2172 American Flight history →	MCO 08:31	DFW 10:30	17%	5%	0.8%	84%
WN 380 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 10:20	DAL 11:55	20%	3%	0.6%	65%
AA 2075 American Flight history →	MCO 09:30	DFW 11:24	21%	6%	0.8%	84%
WN 354 Southwest	MCO 10:52	DAL 12:40	22%	4%	0.8%	no record
F9 2885 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:05	DFW 12:02	27%	12%	1.0%	83%worse than usual
WN 2704 Southwest	MCO 12:45	DAL 14:34	30%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3085 American	MCO 10:28	DFW 12:20	30%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 2124 American Flight history →	MCO 11:16	DFW 13:07	36%	8%	1.3%	84%worse than usual
AA 2136 American Flight history →	MCO 12:56	DFW 14:59	37%	12%	1.2%	59%
AA 2081 American Flight history →	MCO 14:24	DFW 16:35	37%	13%	1.2%	63%
WN 2247 Southwest	MCO 14:50	DAL 16:37	38%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 2750 American	MCO 14:42	DFW 16:39	39%	13%	1.3%	no record
WN 1402 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:00	DAL 17:50	41%	9%	1.0%	58%
WN 2706 Southwest	MCO 16:11	DAL 17:58	44%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 1606 American	MCO 15:36	DFW 17:38	44%	16%	1.0%	no record
AA 2143 American Flight history →	MCO 15:45	DFW 17:47	44%	17%	1.0%	46%
AA 2097 American Flight history →	MCO 16:47	DFW 18:50	46%	16%	1.3%	40%
WN 1565 Southwest	MCO 20:35	DAL 22:23	51%	16%	1.3%	no record
WN 1973 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 21:50	DAL 23:30	51%	16%	1.3%	56%
AA 1288 American Flight history →	MCO 17:48	DFW 19:47	51%	16%	1.3%	57%
AA 2385 American Flight history →	MCO 18:26	DFW 20:30	51%	25%	2.1%	30%
AA 1615 American	MCO 17:27	DFW 19:21	53%	15%	1.6%	no record
AA 1692 American	MCO 18:28	DFW 20:35	54%	25%	2.1%	no record
WN 1466 Southwest	MCO 19:06	DAL 20:54	54%	19%	1.3%	no record
WN 1419 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:35	DAL 21:20	56%	19%	1.3%	50%
AA 2108 American	MCO 19:34	DFW 21:29	58%	23%	2.1%	no record
F9 1481 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:35	DFW 20:33	62%	27%	2.3%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON