Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2894 at 06:01, 7%.

Safest bet that day AA 2894 MCO 06:01 → MIA 07:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1947 MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2894 American Flight history →	MCO 06:01	MIA 07:12	7%	2%	1.2%	90%
AA 1733 American Flight history →	MCO 07:34	MIA 08:46	9%	3%	1.0%	90%
AA 2240 American Flight history →	MCO 10:00	MIA 11:15	10%	5%	0.9%	88%
AA 1712 American Flight history →	MCO 11:02	MIA 12:14	10%	7%	0.8%	83%
AA 2593 American Flight history →	MCO 08:35	MIA 09:49	10%	4%	1.2%	95%
B6 2547 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:05	FLL 11:12	19%	8%	0.8%	80%
WN 1459 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 21:30	FLL 22:45	30%	12%	0.9%	63%
AA 2092 American Flight history →	MCO 15:39	MIA 16:50	33%	14%	1.6%	52%
WN 1516 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:50	MIA 22:10	33%	14%	1.3%	75%
AA 2072 American Flight history →	MCO 18:34	MIA 19:50	41%	18%	2.1%	29%
WN 2678 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:50	PBI 22:05	41%	16%	2.1%	63%
AA 2147 American Flight history →	MCO 19:40	MIA 20:57	45%	17%	2.1%	40%
B6 1947 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:25	FLL 19:37	50%	19%	1.9%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON