Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:12 pm at Everett)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: QX 2491 at 12:42, 55%.

Nonstops today


QX 2491 Horizon	PAE 12:42	PDX 13:48	55%	24%	1.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PAE 14:52 → PHX 17:50AS 515	3h 06m Phoenix	PHX 20:56 → PDX 23:38AS 650	8h 46m	93%	66%
Alaska Details →	PAE 12:20 → LAX 15:12AS 2278 · flown by Horizon	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 18:27 → PDX 20:48AS 1397	8h 28m	100%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON