Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:19 am at Everett); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via SFO, leaving 11:05, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PAE 11:05 → SFO 13:16AS 2139 · flown by Horizon	3h 27m San Francisco	SFO 16:43 → SAN 18:20AS 1330	7h 15m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	PAE 12:33 → PDX 13:34AS 2365 · flown by Horizon	1h 21m Portland	PDX 14:55 → SAN 17:29AS 1312	4h 56m	94%	59%
Alaska Details →	PAE 14:52 → PHX 17:50AS 515	1h 03m Phoenix	PHX 18:53 → SAN 20:23AS 3060 · flown by SkyWest	5h 31m	80%	31%
Alaska Details →	PAE 10:44 → LAS 13:16AS 777	1h 22m Las Vegas	LAS 14:38 → SAN 15:57AS 2282 · flown by Horizon	5h 13m	96%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON