Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1376 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 1376 PBI 06:00 → ATL 07:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 838 PBI 16:55 → ATL 18:53 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1376 Delta Flight history →	PBI 06:00	ATL 07:46	5%	2%	1.2%	97%
DL 1352 Delta Flight history →	PBI 07:00	ATL 08:50	6%	2%	1.2%	94%
DL 1301 Delta Flight history →	PBI 08:00	ATL 09:49	9%	3%	0.9%	92%
DL 1311 Delta Flight history →	PBI 11:02	ATL 12:51	10%	3%	0.9%	88%
DL 1106 Delta Flight history →	PBI 09:00	ATL 10:47	10%	4%	0.9%	86%
DL 1266 Delta Flight history →	PBI 10:00	ATL 11:47	10%	3%	0.9%	86%
DL 1527 Delta Flight history →	PBI 12:50	ATL 14:48	11%	4%	0.7%	77%
DL 1190 Delta Flight history →	PBI 13:59	ATL 15:54	13%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 1458 Delta Flight history →	PBI 18:27	ATL 20:34	14%	4%	0.7%	74%
DL 838 Delta Flight history →	PBI 16:55	ATL 18:53	15%	4%	0.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON