Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: B6 322 at 06:40, 16%.

Safest bet today B6 322 PBI 06:40 → BOS 09:49 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 1205 PBI 13:40 → BOS 17:01 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Weather 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 322 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 06:40	BOS 09:49	16%	7%	2.4%	85%
B6 22 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 17:25	BOS 20:40	34%	21%	0.8%	52%
B6 2322 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 19:55	BOS 23:08	36%	19%	0.9%	51%
DL 1205 Delta Flight history →	PBI 13:40	BOS 17:01	46%	28%	2.7%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON