Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3189 PBI 07:25 → BWI 09:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3191 PBI 19:05 → BWI 21:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3189 Southwest Flight history →	PBI 07:25	BWI 09:50	5%	2%	1.4%	93%
WN 1072 Southwest Flight history →	PBI 14:40	BWI 17:05	12%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 3191 Southwest Flight history →	PBI 19:05	BWI 21:35	14%	6%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON