Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2848 at 05:43 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2848 PBI 05:43 → CLT 07:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 2270 PBI 17:27 → CLT 19:31 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2848 American Flight history →	PBI 05:43	CLT 07:40	5%	7%	2.2%	97%
AA 1853 American Flight history →	PBI 08:03	CLT 10:05	10%	7%	2.2%	91%
AA 2278 American Flight history →	PBI 10:09	CLT 12:07	11%	3%	1.3%	94%
AA 2279 American Flight history →	PBI 13:50	CLT 15:54	18%	4%	1.2%	80%
AA 2270 American Flight history →	PBI 17:27	CLT 19:31	26%	6%	1.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON