Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4431 at 11:19 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4431 PBI 11:19 → DCA 13:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest B6 24 PBI 14:32 → DCA 16:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4431 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PBI 11:19	DCA 13:59	10%	5%	0.7%	75%
B6 2334 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 10:41	DCA 13:05	20%	10%	0.7%	70%
AA 2281 American Flight history →	PBI 15:25	DCA 17:58	25%	10%	1.2%	58%
B6 24 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 14:32	DCA 16:59	28%	16%	0.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON