Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1220 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1220 PBI 07:05 → DFW 09:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2282 PBI 18:44 → DFW 21:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1220 American Flight history →	PBI 07:05	DFW 09:19	11%	3%	1.8%	90%
AA 2276 American Flight history →	PBI 14:14	DFW 16:28	25%	9%	1.2%	61%
AA 2282 American Flight history →	PBI 18:44	DFW 21:00	28%	9%	1.3%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON