Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2158 at 06:00, 5%.

Safest bet that day UA 2158 PBI 06:00 → EWR 08:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 144 PBI 18:08 → EWR 21:00 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2158 United Flight history →	PBI 06:00	EWR 08:54	5%	2%	1.2%	94%
B6 2144 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 07:45	EWR 10:31	12%	3%	1.2%	67%
UA 1197 United Flight history →	PBI 10:42	EWR 13:38	16%	6%	0.8%	89%
UA 1187 United Flight history →	PBI 19:29	EWR 22:29	25%	12%	0.9%	68%
UA 353 United Flight history →	PBI 13:12	EWR 16:13	31%	10%	0.8%	74%
UA 1395 United Flight history →	PBI 17:15	EWR 20:15	33%	10%	0.8%	61%
B6 144 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 18:08	EWR 21:00	44%	15%	1.2%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON