Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:25 pm at West Palm Beach)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via BWI, leaving 14:40, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind West Palm Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PBI 14:40 → BWI 17:05WN 1072	1h 20m Baltimore	BWI 18:25 → HOU 20:56WN 1011	7h 16m	95%	69%
American Details →	PBI 14:14 → DFW 16:28AA 2276	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:29 → HOU 20:06AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	6h 52m	84%	66%
Delta Details →	PBI 16:55 → ATL 18:53DL 838	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	5h 56m	91%	58%
American Details →	PBI 18:44 → DFW 21:00AA 2282	1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	6h 12m	83%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON