Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: B6 854 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day B6 854 PBI 06:46 → JFK 09:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1054 PBI 14:08 → JFK 17:06 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 854 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 06:46	JFK 09:35	6%	3%	1.0%	90%
DL 2623 Delta Flight history →	PBI 11:59	JFK 14:54	14%	5%	0.8%	75%
B6 1154 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 10:44	JFK 13:34	18%	6%	0.9%	72%
DL 1638 Delta Flight history →	PBI 19:59	JFK 22:59	24%	9%	0.9%	56%
B6 1054 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 14:08	JFK 17:06	28%	10%	0.9%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON