Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2532 at 07:20, 8%.

Safest bet that day DL 2532 PBI 07:20 → LGA 10:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1962 PBI 18:27 → LGA 21:15 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2532 Delta Flight history →	PBI 07:20	LGA 10:10	8%	2%	1.0%	92%
B6 1062 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 08:00	LGA 10:46	16%	5%	0.9%	92%
DL 2526 Delta Flight history →	PBI 10:44	LGA 13:33	22%	5%	0.9%	76%
DL 2466 Delta Flight history →	PBI 19:37	LGA 22:33	31%	9%	1.2%	50%
DL 2396 Delta Flight history →	PBI 15:20	LGA 18:22	33%	10%	0.9%	64%
AA 4475 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PBI 15:18	LGA 18:19	37%	9%	1.0%	69%
B6 1962 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 18:27	LGA 21:15	51%	18%	1.2%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON