Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:46 pm at West Palm Beach)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 52% (calm day: 34%). Best bet: American via DFW, leaving 18:44, 33% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind West Palm Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PBI 18:44 → DFW 21:00AA 2282	1h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:48 → ONT 00:05 +1AA 1695	8h 21m	79%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON