Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 21–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2269 PBI 13:05 → ORD 15:29 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest UA 312 PBI 15:58 → ORD 18:32 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2269 American Flight history →	PBI 13:05	ORD 15:29	21%	4%	0.9%	78%
AA 2275 American Flight history →	PBI 18:54	ORD 21:29	28%	7%	0.9%	69%
UA 312 United Flight history →	PBI 15:58	ORD 18:32	29%	6%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON