tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 38% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind West Palm Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PBI 08:00 → ATL 09:49DL 1301 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 50m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → PBI 15:58 → ORD 18:32UA 312 3h 03m Chicago ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106 11h 34m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → PBI 12:25 → DTW 15:20DL 2926 3h 35m Detroit DTW 18:55 → SFO 20:55DL 509 11h 30m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → PBI 07:25 → BWI 09:50WN 3189 1h 55m Baltimore BWI 11:45 → SFO 14:29WN 4351 10h 04m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → PBI 16:55 → ATL 18:53DL 838 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656 10h 41m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → PBI 10:00 → ATL 11:47DL 1266 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → SFO 17:31DL 823 10h 31m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → PBI 08:03 → CLT 10:05AA 1853 2h 03m Charlotte CLT 12:08 → SFO 14:37AA 1687 9h 34m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → PBI 12:50 → ATL 14:48DL 1527 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 18:08 → SFO 20:05DL 517 10h 15m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PBI 14:14 → DFW 16:28AA 2276 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:28 → SFO 19:17AA 2333 8h 03m 73% 46%
AmericanDetails → PBI 17:27 → CLT 19:31AA 2270 47m Charlotte CLT 20:18 → SFO 22:48AA 1580 8h 21m 62% 44%
UnitedDetails → PBI 13:12 → EWR 16:13UA 353 47m Newark EWR 17:00 → SFO 20:37UA 1340 10h 25m 38% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON